BANGKOK, Jan 30 — Negative factors, including volatility in the baht currency, now confronting Thailand has led the Thai National Shippers Council (TNSC) to lower its projection of the country’s export growth in 2015 to only 1.5 per cent from the 2.5 per cent forecast earlier.
TNSC Chairman Nopporn Thepsithar said there were signs that Thailand’s export growth this year would fall to 1.5 per cent due to several negative factors including an expected slowdown in global economy to 3 per cent in 2015, a cut in the Generalised System of Preferences by the European Union for several developing countries, including Thailand, a relocation of production bases to Thailand’s neighbouring countries, a shortage of labour, falling prices of agricultural products in Thailand and the volatility of the Thai baht.
Mr Nopporn said he expected the baht would strengthen to 32 baht against the US dollar during the first half of 2015 and would later weaken to 33 baht.
The degree of volatility is, however, expected to be high.
Exports by Thailand this year to key markets, such as the United States are expected to grow only 5 per cent and to Japan 3 per cent while they would decline 4 per cent to European markets, he said.
Mr Nopporn suggested that Thai exporters should find new overseas markets to replace current markets whose economies are projected to slow down while producers must also boost efficiency so that their products could compete abroad.
Touching on declining oil prices by as much as 40 per cent, Mr Nopporn said it would help manufacturers to lower their production costs 13 per cent.
But manufacturers overseas are also able to lower their production costs.
Despite the fall in production costs, demand does not increase, he said.
Therefore, cheaper oil prices won't help increase exports during the first half of this year but will assist in the long-term if oil prices fall below 50 US dollars per barrel, Mr Nopporn said.
Thailand earned about Bt227.57 billion in exports in 2014, down 0.41 per cent from 2013.
Last year’s exports shrank for the second consecutive year. (MCOT online news)
